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WHETHER EL NINO AND BUSY STORM SEASON -- OR A QUIET ONE -- EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

The slow start to the hurricane season appears to be due in part to strong upper-altitude winds and warmer water in the Pacific, raising the issue of whether there is a "secret" El Nino brewing in the nation's largest ocean -- that periodic system which is caused when a large parcel of water suddenly heats up.

No one as yet is calling it an El Nino, but if it develops into one, and if it is like those of the early 1990s, it could mean a year or more of major weather disturbances, from mudslides in California to heavy snow in the Midwest and East. The weather will swerve all over the place -- as it has thus far this summer, at the same time that there is a damper on hurricanes.

While the hurricane season could yet still fire up, and while all it takes is one storm to make matters dramatic (Hurricane Andrew came during a "calm" year), El Ninos are good news to the extent that the eastward winds they spawn shear off the tops of cyclones. For the time being, experts still expect an active hurricane season, though less so than they did at the start of the season in this field where predictions are at best tenuous.

El Ninos have been a prominent sign of our times through the ages and the very name, fashioned after the Infant (because El Ninos often are first recorded near Christmas, off South America), perhaps one day will bear a message. While the prediction for the next three months is "neutral," climate officials wonder if an El Nino will settle in by 2007, or even at the end (Christmastime) of this year.

If so, expect record mudslides and northeasters.

In the 1990s, there were so many El Ninos, which usually come only every seven or so years, that it looked like a single ongoing one -- generating massive ice storms in the Midwest and huge weather systems in general. In California storms spawned by the phenomenon led to disaster declarations in all but one of the 58 counties.

It creates huge effects everywhere. In 1630 five million died in India of a drought caused by the weather system.

Some believe there is even biblical evidence that Pharaoh's dream of seven years of grain "blasted with the east wind" may have been linked to a classic description of El Nino.

Warm weather warms the ocean and July turned out to be the second hottest on record, with the temperatures so hot in New Hampshire last week that a woman baked cookies on the dash of her SUV (while it snowed in South Africa).

Look for a gyration -- extremes -- more than a trend in any one direction. There has been at least one comparable heat wave in recent times.

But if it continues, there will be those who begin to suspect that we are on the verge of another Dust Bowl -- a 1930s-style drought -- or perhaps even like dry periods that were greater. From the 13th to 16th century it is believed that the U.S. encountered droughts much larger than the "black blizzards" of the Dust Bowl (droughts that spanned several decades and reached from Texas to Minnesota), and from the time of Christ to 1200 A.D., there may have been mega-droughts that were greater still, lasting centuries and stretching to Virginia. Such would decimate the supply of food, drastically increasing prices.

When we think of natural disasters, we focus on intense events like storms without considering long-term patterns that can bring drought and shortages of all kinds. Mega-droughts may have coincided with other periods of history that were going through a change of age, as during Mesopotamian times. Sin brings dearth while with prayer we have what we need even in times of shortage.

That's one aspect of the "signs." There is also society, and in this regard, wars and rumors. The military displays are a reflection of the tension in our hearts and the danger now is that intervention in Iraq will cause a civil war stoked to a regional uprising by the current Israeli incursion into Lebanon.

Photo: private audience with Our Holy Father The Pope John Paul II (17044 bytes)Mystic Maria Esperanza -- who died two years ago Monday (8/7) -- once said that certain prophetic events would begin in her native Venezuela, and we now see a leader there who is hostile to the U.S., not very accommodating to Catholics, and recently purchased 24 aircraft from Russia. Let us not forget this neglected part of the world.

On the spiritual-warfare front -- which is more widespread, and more treacherous -- the devil seems to be in a mood of showing himself. In Ireland, a photo of a bonfire on July 12 looked strikingly, startlingly, like a horned and goateed entity, reminding us of the need to prepare.

Meanwhile, singer Madonna lengthened her anti-Catholic resume with a horrible show in Rome itself Sunday during which she crucified herself on a diamante-studded Cross.

Speaking on behalf of the Pope, Cardinal Ersilio Tonino said that “this concert is a blasphemous challenge to the faith and a profanation of the Cross. To crucify herself during the concert in the city of Popes and martyrs is an act of open hostility.”

There are currently many such acts in society, and these too are "signs."

The times we are in! Does anyone really feel that they are normal?

The weather is certainly not. And there are also rumblings of the earth. Watch especially for developments that have to do with embryonic stem cells. When it comes to natural disasters, the ten most dangerous areas are thought by one group of scientists, in this order, to be Miami, New Orleans, Oakland, San Francisco, Honolulu, San Jose, Los Angeles, Houston, Long Beach, and Tulsa. They should be surrounded with blessed salt. So should every home. So should every community. We must be vigilant not only about the outside world but what we encounter in our own homes.

Our advice: have no fear -- which is not necessary for one who prays -- but expect the unexpected.

[see also: Experts expect less intense hurricane season and July was second hottest on record and Purity of thoughts brings protection]

[resources: It's a Disaster and Sent To Earth]

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